When the UAE signed the Abraham Accords in September 2020, it was presented as a historic breakthrough — a normalisation of relations with Israel that would reshape the Middle East’s political landscape. Four years later, the picture is considerably more complicated. The accords delivered real economic and technological dividends. They also entangled the UAE in a set of regional dynamics that its diplomacy is still struggling to navigate.
The economic dimension of the accords exceeded initial expectations. Israeli technology companies have established regional headquarters in Dubai. Bilateral trade has surpassed $3 billion annually. The partnership in artificial intelligence — with the UAE’s G42 and Israeli cybersecurity firms at its centre — has become strategically significant. For Abu Dhabi, the accords were always primarily an economic and technology deal wrapped in diplomatic language, and on those terms they have delivered.
The strategic costs are harder to calculate but increasingly real. The accords positioned the UAE as Israel’s most important Arab partner at precisely the moment when Israeli military operations in Gaza generated the most sustained outpouring of anti-normalisation sentiment in the Arab world. Emirati officials, caught between their government’s diplomatic commitments and a domestic and regional public deeply hostile to Israel’s conduct, have found themselves in an increasingly untenable position.
The longer-term question is whether the Abraham Accords represent the first chapter of a new regional order or a diplomatic experiment whose costs will ultimately outweigh its benefits. The UAE’s answer to that question will shape not just its own foreign policy but the trajectory of Arab-Israeli relations for a generation.
حين وقّعت الإمارات اتفاقيات أبراهام في سبتمبر 2020، قُدّمت بوصفها إنجازاً تاريخياً — تطبيعاً للعلاقات مع إسرائيل من شأنه إعادة تشكيل المشهد السياسي في الشرق الأوسط. بعد أربع سنوات، الصورة أكثر تعقيداً بكثير. حقّقت الاتفاقيات عوائد اقتصادية وتكنولوجية حقيقية. لكنها أوقعت الإمارات في منظومة من الديناميكيات الإقليمية تعاني دبلوماسيتها حتى اليوم من تعقيداتها.
البُعد الاقتصادي للاتفاقيات فاق التوقعات الأولية. أسست شركات تكنولوجيا إسرائيلية مقرات إقليمية لها في دبي. تجاوزت التجارة الثنائية ثلاثة مليارات دولار سنوياً. والشراكة في الذكاء الاصطناعي باتت ذات أهمية استراتيجية.