Three years after the United Nations brokered a nationwide ceasefire in Yemen, the country remains suspended between war and peace. The formal fighting has largely stopped. The flow of fuel, food and medicine into Houthi-controlled territory has improved. Prisoner exchanges have occurred. And yet the fundamental questions that drive the conflict — who governs Yemen, who controls its revenues, and what role Iran plays in its security architecture — remain entirely unresolved.
The talks in Muscat, Geneva and Stockholm have produced communiqués, frameworks and good intentions. They have not produced a political settlement. Each round of negotiations founders on the same cluster of issues: the Houthis’ insistence on controlling the central bank and the port of Hodeidah, the internationally recognised government’s resistance to any arrangement that institutionalises Houthi power, and Saudi Arabia’s increasingly evident desire to exit a conflict it can neither win nor afford.
On the ground, the picture is more volatile than the ceasefire numbers suggest. Targeted killings in Aden and Marib continue. The Southern Transitional Council, backed by the UAE, has deepened its effective control over much of the south. And the Houthis, far from being weakened by years of conflict, have consolidated their hold on the north and built what analysts describe as a proto-state with functioning institutions, a tax base, and a military capable of projecting force well beyond Yemen’s borders — as their attacks on Red Sea shipping have demonstrated.
The humanitarian situation, despite improvements in access, remains catastrophic. UNICEF estimates that 17.6 million people are food insecure. The healthcare system, damaged by years of conflict and neglect, lacks the capacity to manage the disease burden that accompanies malnutrition and displacement. Cholera outbreaks continue. The country’s infrastructure — roads, ports, electricity grids — has been so thoroughly destroyed that reconstruction will require decades of sustained investment even after a political settlement is reached.
The international community’s attention has moved elsewhere. The war in Ukraine, the Gaza conflict and various other crises have crowded Yemen off the front pages. Donor fatigue is real: the UN’s Yemen humanitarian response plan is currently funded at 42% of its requirements. The combination of reduced international attention and a conflict that has settled into a dangerous equilibrium has created exactly the conditions in which frozen conflicts can persist for generations.
بعد ثلاث سنوات من توسط الأمم المتحدة لوقف إطلاق نار على مستوى البلاد في اليمن، لا يزال البلد معلقاً بين الحرب والسلام. توقف القتال المباشر إلى حدٍّ بعيد. تحسّن تدفق الوقود والغذاء والدواء إلى المناطق الخاضعة لسيطرة الحوثيين. جرت تبادلات للأسرى. ومع ذلك، تبقى الأسئلة الجوهرية التي تغذّي الصراع — من يحكم اليمن، ومن يتحكم في عائداته، وما دور إيران في بنيته الأمنية — دون حسم.
أسفرت المحادثات في مسقط وجنيف وستوكهولم عن بيانات وأطر ونوايا حسنة. لكنها لم تُفضِ إلى تسوية سياسية. يعثر كل جولة من المفاوضات على العقد ذاتها: إصرار الحوثيين على السيطرة على البنك المركزي وميناء الحديدة، ومقاومة الحكومة المعترف بها دولياً لأي ترتيب يُرسّخ سلطة الحوثيين، والرغبة المتصاعدة للمملكة العربية السعودية في الخروج من صراع لا تستطيع كسبه ولا تحمّل تكاليفه.